高楼成庄

wangting

正好和这明星猫一起收藏吧，再来一张！

wangting

刚放了一个要睡的猫，一下子又来了个长篇大论，吓我一跳，还得拜读一遍，你这个文化人，还让不让我这个搞地产的睡觉了！文章来了不得不关心一下，我眼睛都眯成一个缝了，行了，good night了，读了一遍了，明天再来拜读你可能再上的文章。。

他山砍玉

Falling off the xyz wagon on my road to build personal wealth, I have been avoiding mulling over the wrong decisions by diverting my attention into a new topic, housing crash and recovery.  No matter how the new interest plays out, the learning experience helps entertain and improvise. Feed the mind!  Now something positive!


New Housing Barons Widen Their Sights and Bets
Published: Thursday, 2 May 2013 | 10:16 AM ET
By: Diana Olick

Play Video

Thursday, 2 May 2013 | 11:25 AM ET
Hedge fund managers are shifting strategies to make more money on foreclosures, reports CNBC's Diana Olick.
As home prices rise, there are fewer bargains in single family homes, but not fewer investors. Their ranks and property portfolios continue to grow. Last month Five Ten Capital, a Piedmont, California-based asset manager, inked a one hundred million dollar deal with Deutsche Bank to open a new fund to buy and manage single family rental homes, expanding Five Ten's range to Texas and Missouri.
"Obviously, home prices are up, so did you miss an opportunity? Yes, you'd have been better off buying a year ago than today, but we think for the most part we are in the third inning of this housing recovery," said Rob Bloemker, Five Ten's CEO.
Unlike the "flippers" of the last decade, today's investors in single family homes have a longer-term strategy. They buy largely with cash and seem intent on growing their portfolios, rather than recycling them. While some credit these bulk buyers with saving the housing market, they seem uneasy with that characterization.
"I think investor activity has accelerated the recovery, but I don't think investor activity is responsible for the recovery," said Rick Sharga of Carrington Mortgage Holdings, a Connecticut-based group that invests in distressed homes and distressed mortgages. "If all 10 billion dollars of investor-announced funding had been spent last year, what percentage of the $1.7 trillion in mortgages written would that have accounted for? It's a rounding error really."
But these investors did help to clean up much of the distress created by the housing crash, especially in the hardest-hit markets, like Phoenix, Las Vegas and parts of California. Investors still accounted for 53 percent of home purchases in Las Vegas in March, according to DataQuick. Multi-home buyers bought 647 homes in the Las Vegas area in March, which amounts to 14.4 percent of all homes sold—a 20 percent increase from March of 2012.
There had been concern that as home prices rose, these investors would dump their homes back onto the market, and reverse the recovery. That is not the strategy, at least not yet.
"Investors aren't going to dump a lot of properties into a market and run the risk of losing money or devaluating the rest of their portfolios," noted Sharga.
They may not be selling, but some are changing their strategies, as they search for higher yields.
"We're not buying a lot [of homes] right now. We think the market is a little bit too frothy. We're very, very particular about our model and what we will buy," Sharga said. "We've been very active in the non-performing loan market. We'll look at other trades that don't have same kind of high-volume competition that artificially drives up some of those prices."
Mortgages

               
30 yr fixed
3.48%         3.03%
30 yr fixed jumbo
3.88%         3.18%
15 yr fixed
2.69%         2.56%
15 yr fixed jumbo
3.26%         2.74%
5/1 ARM
2.60%         2.47%
5/1 jumbo ARM
2.86%         2.50%


Los Angeles-based Colony Capital, which boasts approximately ten thousand single-family rental homes in its portfolio, had centered its investments largely in the Southwest and West, but is now shifting to other markets.
"In terms of our mix, less is going to Arizona and California today," said Justin Chang a principal at Colony. "Our mix is increasing on east coast, Georgia, Florida, we're active in Texas. I think over time some of the early markets will become a smaller part of our overall portfolio."
Some investors are also starting to look at new construction, as home builders start to ramp up production again. The key is to find new product that is cheaper than replacement costs, which still is not that easy. So far investment has mostly gone only as far as distressed new homes, but as prices rise, that may change.
"On home building, there's a lot of chatter about that. We are in some conversations with builders," explained Chang, who admits the economics have not been compelling yet. "Over time you'll see more and more of these transactions, and we may do one as well."
Another potential strategy going forward is a consolidation, as investors turn away from distressed properties and focus on so-called "Mom and Pop" landlords, who may buy just one or two properties. There are an estimated 14 million single family rental homes owned by this cohort.
"If you think about all of the major institutions maybe owning 70,000 total homes compared to the market size of 14 million homes, the long term potential is enormous. Institutions are literally a fly on an elephant," said Aaron Edelheit, CEO of The American Home, an Atlanta-based company that owns and manages about 2,500 homes. "We may look back and realize that the REO [real estate owned] to rental space was only the foundation for an exponentially larger industry with institutions owning hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of homes."
There are 7.2 million more renters today than there were in 2004, and just 400,000 more homeowners, according to the U.S. Census.
Despite the recovery in home sales, the homeownership rate continues to fall, from an all-time high of 69.2 percent to 65 percent in the first quarter of 2013. As home prices rise and the employment picture improves, more people will come back to home ownership, and some of the new rental homes will inevitably be sold, but certainly not all of them.
"If you buy homes in areas with below-median income, I think the mortgage market is going to have harder time providing credit to these people, and it's going to take longer for that to recover," said Bloemker. "We think that these homes are more likely to be long term rentals, and those are likely to end up in the hands of institutional investors."

他山砍玉

Where Are the Retail Investors?
The market's milestone-breaking run continues to generate headlines, but the rally does not appear to be bringing back retail buyers in any numbers.
"I think that investors are recognizing it's something they ought to be tuned into, but there's still a wariness of the market by individual investors who think it's gone too far, too fast. They are still carrying some wounds from 2008 and they're still sensitive," said Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery chief investment strategist.

Demystifying the Economy-Stock Market Divide
Published: Tuesday, 7 May 2013 | 7:55 PM ET
By: Kelly Evans
Call it the "great" recession. Lombard Street insists the U.S. slipped into recession in the second quarter as the full brunt of the budget cuts known as the sequester hit. Even the rosiest of forecasters acknowledge growth slowed sharply from the first three months of the year. And yet major U.S. stock indexes continue swaggering to fresh all-time highs.
Contradiction? Not quite. It is precisely because growth continues to underperform that the Federal Reserve can and will keep interest rates at record lows and its supplemental bond-buying program in place.
And that guarantees two things: first, that investors—especially pension funds which need to hit annual return targets north of 5 percent—will continue to pile into riskier, higher-yielding assets; and second, that companies able to take advantage of these super-low borrowing costs will continue issuing debt to buy back shares of their own stock, supporting both their individual performance and that of the broader market.
No wonder investors describe it as a hold-your-nose-and-invest kind of environment. Voodoo shop? You bet, says Brian Reynolds of Rosenblatt Securities; but "we think this boom will go on for years to come because of those [pension] cash flows." A new acronym—FOBOR, or FOrced Buyers Of Risk—is making City rounds. Even the old Chuck Prince line ("As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance") is becoming alarmingly common again.
The squeamishness is understandable. When the S&amp 500 first closed above 1,000 in February 1998, U.S. growth had averaged 3.9 percent in the prior year and would go on to peak at 5.4 percent on a rolling four-quarter basis two years later. By contrast, in this same quarter that the S&amp has just punched through 1,600, the U.S. will be lucky to avoid contraction. Growth through the March quarter averaged just 1.8 percent. A sustained pickup to even 3 percent for now looks unlikely.
It is fair, in other words, to claim today's stock market rally isn't built on as solid a foundation. But there are two key reasons it still doesn't appear to be on the verge of collapse. First, the buyback phenomenon, of which Apple's record-busting corporate debt offering is only the latest example. Second, the fact that fiscal drag as opposed to the end of a business cycle is largely behind the economy's summer swoon.
There is both technical and fundamental support, that is—for now. One or the other will have to give before investors seriously rethink the rally; either a rebound in benchmark rates driven by brighter growth prospects that shakes people out of riskier assets or signs that the business cycle is taking a turn for the worse.
As for being stuck in the pretty glum middle? Turns out it's just the place for stock-market glee.
—By CNBC's Kelly Evans. Follow her on Twitter @Kelly_Evans.

他山砍玉

11 cities where workers are disappearing
By Annalyn Kurtz @AnnalynKurtz
Cincinnati, Cleveland and Dayton, Ohio

The labor force has been shrinking in all of Ohio's major cities other than its state capital, Columbus.
Cleveland has lost 52,000 workers, or about 5% of its labor force, since November 2007, and Cincinnati lost 39,000 workers, or about 4% of its labor force, since May 2009, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Job growth is anemic, particularly in Ohio's main industry, manufacturing. Signs point to workers giving up, said Amy Hanauer, executive director of Policy Matters Ohio.
"I think people are getting discouraged and leaving the labor market," she said.
Ohio lost 388,000 jobs in the financial crisis, and has since gained only about a fifth of them back.
Phoenix and Tucson, Ariz.

The fallout from the housing bust is still felt here. The construction sector slashed more than half its jobs in the crisis, and they've only started to trickle back in the last few months.
But the decline in the labor force isn't solely due to construction. In neighboring Nevada, the heart of the housing bust, the labor force didn't drop nearly as dramatically as in Arizona.
Phoenix alone lost 64,000 workers, or 3% of its labor force, and Tucson lost 29,000 workers, or a 6% of its labor force, over the last four years.
Most of those declines have come from young men, ages 25 to 34, and middle-aged women, ages 45 to 59.
The Latino labor force has also declined, which could be due in part to stricter immigration laws.
Hartford, Bridgeport and New Haven, Conn.

Like much of New England, Connecticut generally has an older population than the nation as a whole. With the stock market improving since the recession ended, the number of Baby Boomers retiring has been increasing, said Alissa DeJonge, director of research at the Connecticut Economic Resource Center.
At the same time, the unemployment rate among young minorities has climbed in the state's urban centers, such as Hartford and Bridgeport.
"It may be that these younger minority workers have stopped looking for work and will reenter the labor force when the state's economy improves," said Orlando Rodriguez, senior policy fellow at Connecticut Voices for Children.
Detroit and Kalamazoo, Mich. and Milwaukee, Wis.

Michigan's population was declining three years before the recession even hit, as the auto industry moved jobs elsewhere.
The state's largest city, Detroit was hit particularly hard. Three years ago, the U.S. Census found that the city's population had fallen to its lowest level since 1910.
Other manufacturing cities in the Midwest are facing similar declines.
Milwaukee lost 16,000 workers, or 2% of its labor force since June 2009. And Kalamazoo lost 17,500 workers -- a whopping 10% of its labor force -- since January 2007.

他山砍玉

不知道怎样把PDF文件中的图片不费力地都Post上去？   

A clutch of data lately pointed to growing momentum in the U. S. housing market. It's late to say it has turned the corner. As a famous killjoy in an optimistic family, I have finally turned around to declare my blessing as well, however late it is.  But, in the darkest moment of this slump, I have kept my faith in the U. S. housing future, thanks to the thesis below, a forty-four page document.  Only the beginning part was posted here. It can serve as a pointer to those who are interested in reading the entire thesis.

JOINT CENTER FOR HOUSING STUDIES OF HARVARD UNIVERSITY
SIGNS OF RECOVERY IN THE FOR-SALE MARKET
The for-sale housing market remained depressed for much of
2011. House prices in most areas continued to slide, sales were
lackluster, and single-family construction hit a record low.
But as the year ended, steadier job growth and improving consumer
confidence boosted sales of both new and existing homes
(Figure 1). With demand reviving and inventories of homes for
sale depleted, home prices may well find a bottom this year.
Moreover, stronger sales should pave the way for a pickup in
single-family construction over the course of 2012.
Nevertheless, a number of conditions may keep the recovery in
the owner-occupied market relatively subdued. The backlog of
roughly two million loans in foreclosure means that distressed
sales will remain elevated, keeping prices under pressure.
Another 11.1 million homeowners owe more on their mortgages
than their homes are worth, which dampens both sales of new
homes and investment in existing units. And despite recent
declines, the number of vacant homes is still well above normal,
limiting demand for new construction in many markets.
What the for-sale market needs most is a sustained increase
in employment to bring household growth back to its longterm
pace. But the persistent weakness in homebuilding has in
itself hindered a strong rebound in hiring. From 2006 through
2010, residential fixed investment pulled down growth in gross
domestic product (GDP) in all but three quarters, two of which
benefited from targeted tax credits. Since 2011 began, however,
home construction and improvement spending have made a
positive contribution to GDP in four out of five quarters. With
multifamily construction already on the rise, even modest
increases in the number of single-family starts—together with
stronger sales of existing homes and associated investment in
improvements—will bolster economic growth and, in turn, the
housing sector.
THE RENTAL MARKET REBOUND
The bright spot continues to be the rental market, where
demand has spiked. Indeed, the number of renters surged by
5.1 million in the 2000s, the largest decade-long increase in
the postwar era. In part, this growth reflects disproportionate
After several false starts, there
is reason to believe that 2012
will mark the beginning of a
true housing market recovery.
Sustained employment growth
remains key, providing the
stimulus for stronger household
growth and bringing relief to
some distressed homeowners.
Many rental markets have already
turned the corner, giving a lift
to multifamily construction but
also eroding affordability for
many low-income households.
While gaining ground, the
homeowner market still faces
multiple challenges. If the broader
economy weakens in the short
term, the housing rebound could
again stall.
2 THE STATE OF THE NATION’S HOUSING 2012
shares of young, minority, and lower-income households, who
are traditionally more likely to rent. But the foreclosure crisis
and the aging of the population have also spurred increases in
renting among the middle-aged, as well as households that are
white, married, and have moderate incomes (Figure 2).
Moreover, rental markets have yet to benefit fully from the
presence of the large echo-boom generation. The recession
helped to dampen the rate at which young people begin to
live independently, contributing to a decline in the number of
households under age 25—the years when renting is most common.
But once the economy recovers and the echo boomers
increasingly strike out on their own, rental markets will receive
another significant lift.
Rapidly rising demand has pushed rental vacancy rates down
across the country, sparking widespread rent increases.
According to MPF Research, rents on investment-grade multifamily
properties outpaced inflation in 38 of the 64 markets it
tracks. Of the remaining metros, all but one (Las Vegas) posted
at least nominal rent increases in 2011. Adjusting for inflation,
San Francisco led the nation with a double-digit rise, but real
rents in metros in the Northeast (Boston and New York), South
(Austin), and West (Denver) were also up 3.0–5.0 percent. Even
in several markets associated with the foreclosure crisis (including
Detroit, Cleveland, and Ft. Myers), real rents are climbing.
Rental market tightening has stabilized multifamily property
values after a sharp drop rivaling that in the single-family market.
As measured by NCREIF’s Transaction Based Apartment
Price Index, prices were up 10.0 percent in the fourth quarter
of 2011 from a year earlier and 34.4 percent from the 2009
low. With vacancy rates falling and owners’ financial positions
strengthening, multifamily starts more than doubled from the
trough to a 225,000 unit annual rate in early 2012. While still
well below the nearly 340,000 annual average in the decade
before the bust, multifamily starts are providing a welcome
boost to the construction industry.

他山砍玉

Largest Gains for Home Prices in 7 Years, Forget Bubble Talk for Now
By Michael Santoli

The fact that the housing market is improving is no longer up for debate. The argument now is over the character of the recovery, and whether the influence of home speculators is a danger.
The S&amp/Case-Shiller house-price index of 20 big metropolitan areas rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in March from February, the largest monthly gain since April 2006, and was up 10.9% from a year earlier. Existing-home sales have been higher than year-earlier levels for 22 straight months. They recently reached their highest monthly level since government home-buyer tax incentives expired in November 2009.
Home prices are being flattered by a strong-supply-demand mismatch. New-house construction plunged far below normal levels in the deep housing bust, as pent-up demand for single-family dwellings built up amid record-low mortgage rates, foreclosure-plagued markets and weak labor conditions. Builders in some markets report being able almost to name their price on newly constructed houses.
The pipeline of available supply is also badly clogged. Even with the recent price gains, a quarter of U.S. homeowners remained underwater in the first quarter, owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, according to real-estate tracker Zillow Inc. (Z). An additional 18% have low enough home equity that they wouldn’t have enough for a down payment on another house if they sold, suggesting that more than 40% of homeowners are virtually trapped in their houses.
Given this backdrop, speculative house-flipping activity has surged back, reminding some observers of the sort of reckless behavior that marked the hazardous excesses of the housing-bubble that crested in 2006.
As the Wall Street Journal notes, the number of homes in California this year that were bought and sold within six months – a proxy for flipping volume – reached the highest level since 2005. Home prices in the Bay Area are up more than 20% on average over the last year, stoking speculative fires. Ads for house-flipping seminars are all over the radio and TV. On Wall Street, meantime, housing-related stocks are among the hottest leaders of the market’s run to new highs this year.
This pickup in fast-money house trading fueled by ultra-cheap credit furnished by the Federal Reserve and government-backed lenders certainly raises fair questions about whether the rebound in housing is helping the broad public, whose incomes have been stagnant amid the boom in investment markets and high-end consumption.
Yet it’s far too soon to call this pattern a re-run of the housing bubble that played such a central role in the financial crisis and deep recession of 2008 and 2009. For one thing, the absolute level of prices remains far below its peak. Even after the gains of the past year, the S&amp Case-Shiller index remains nearly 30% below its peak in mid-2006. And, as noted, there are several unusual factors restraining the inventory of homes for sale, creating an energetic rush for available properties in the short term.
Despite the wary talk of bubble risk creeping back into residential real estate, only continued increases in prices will stabilize housing supply and demand at a healthy level, while refreshing consumer buying power broadly. As prices rise, more owners will get their heads above water, making it financially feasible for them to list their houses and buy another one.
And, as noted in the attached video, houses are the main collateral for consumers in the U.S. economy. As their value rises, debt becomes more manageable and spending picks up. The cycle, in this way, is constructive for the overall economy, until and unless it reaches a dangerous extreme – and we’re not there yet.

wangting

不知妹妹在哪儿找到的这些文章。

谈谈我的经历：

买家剧增，稍好一点的房，不管是什么价位都有不只一个人出价，天天Mutiple Offers，今年最多的出价的人数是72个人Bidding一个房，以高出要价3万多的出价成交！（$107k asking price and sold for $140,500..00)
我每天跟打仗似的，上周Duluth 15万2的房，出的现金，原价，没拿到；Lawrenceville 16万的房，出16万1千1百现金，没拿到；Dacula Hud home 12万5，出13万现金，没拿到；Sandy Spring 50万的房，上市两天好几个人出价，我们还没来的及去看，就卖掉了！这个周出了两个价，都是12万5的Townhouse一多出了8千，现金，拿到了（5个人出价）另一个多出了6千也是现金拿到的（也是5个人出价。）！

新房几乎都没现房，今天走了4，5个新社区，在South Forsyth，没有一个有现房卖的，价位40到50多万，有一个区CHESWYCK，今年这5个月房价涨了3万，本来是55万可以买个带地下室的房，同样的房现在要58万！

他山砍玉

真真的风儿倒吹。去年这时候可是云暗天低。一个例子便是我重新贷款银行请的评估人，在我掷了十万雪花银狠狠地装修之后，竟比两前年少估了十一万。还神秘秘地告诉我“影子”库存房存量有多少多少；他是花了钱去买来的可靠数据等等。我虽觉得他故弄玄虚，也着实为这没费力就“消费”掉的二十万有点莫名其妙。我先生倒是高高兴兴拿着他的报告去见富屯郡估价委员会，满怀希望能博来降税的彩头。结果也没太如意。今年我收到富屯郡再去讨论的邀请，偷懒不去了。看来没有顶风作案是对滴。

我的邻居也讲了他今春的戏剧性卖房经历。两年前无人问津的房子，今年连续三次都在一周内有买主。（头两次因买主来亚城搬迁告吹之类退出），且第三次也就是成功成交（五月初）那次，竟比第一个接受价多了一万五。

今日请假修车。在车铺里闲着，有时间白日乱砍。特此写上免得秋后不好算帐。

他山砍玉

Rober Shiller is “the” professor I like and feel associated with to some extent. Prior to the FBI bust of the Megaload video download site, someone posted one series of his class lectures on the internet and I went through them without getting inside the Yale campus walls (impossible for me in this lifetime, 哈！他是一位从骨子里渗到外斯文有度的学者).  With a perfect timing, I read his first version of Irrational Exuberance and later, second version, when he added his research on U S housing published right at the height of the housing boom. Unfortunately, I didn’t put any learning from his book into action in managing my own financial life, merely marveling at his brilliant research to others.  And not surprisingly, Shiller is one of these people who always have a negative tint in his tone, which is the most obviously trait of my personality as well. Pessimism is a silent killer, I have to say. But regardless, I admire him.
On May 30 2013, he said:

Future of the Housing Market Is ‘A Great Unknown’: Robert Shiller
There’s no doubt the housing market is recovering. New and existing home sales are well above the levels of a year ago and inventories are at their lowest level in 13 years. Plus, home prices are 7% higher than they were a year ago, according to the latest S&amp/Case-Shiller report.
But along with this good news are growing concerns that another bubble is forming in the housing market. Feeding those fears is a growing number of all-cash purchases for homes—primarily by speculators. They account for 27% or more of existing home sales every month over the past year, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The housing market “is becoming more of a speculative asset,” says Robert Shiller, co-creator of the S&amp/Case-Shiller Index and a professor of economics and finance at Yale University. He expects the market will advance in the short-run but beyond that there’s “a great unknown."
Shiller says there is a lot of “speculative excitement” in specific housing markets like Phoenix, Las Vegas and Los Angeles—the first two among the worst performing markets after the last bubble burst. But he’s not convinced that housing bubble is forming.
“People shouldn’t assume the housing market is off to the races,” says Shiller. "[For] the country as a whole it’s rather unlikely that we’ll have another boom like the one we recently had because that's such a rare and unusual event."
The last boom was countrywide and financed by excessive leverage, he says.
Shiller says the housing market is still “very abnormal” because the government continues to underwrite most mortgages. And that support might not last because of the taxpayer revolt against excessive government debt, says Shiller, which would mean a decline in home prices.
His advice is to think of housing as a risky asset, as a portfolio manager would, and diversify. You could even rent a residence and put the money you would have used to buy a home into a “real diversified portfolio,” says Shiller.
Prospective home buyers, renters and sellers will get a better idea about the state of the housing market later this week when the government reports on housing starts Tuesday and the National Association of Realtors reports on existing home sales Thursday. On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders said its builder confidence index fell slightly to 44--its third consecutive decline.