|
|
This is another truth neither the Elephant nor the Donkey is willing to tell. The Elephant simply wants to protect “Capital America” at the expense of “Labor America”. The Donkey, on the other hand, is afraid of hurting voters’ weak stomachs. The truth is simply too shocking and the Donkey’s solution, albeit its noble intentions, is too politically unpalatable for the masses.
West Virginia v.s. Beijing China
If you’ve never been involved in the actual decision making process of “exporting” the US jobs to China, here is how it is done at the ground level. I spent most of my W2 career in Hi-tech, including both creating some tech jobs in the US and exporting others to China. I also had one low-tech product that was made in the West Virginia coal country.
After the coal businesses went bust, with more power plants moved away from coals, many coal miners lost their jobs and became permanently unemployed. No amount of re-training would land them new jobs, unless you refuse to face the reality that there are simply too many bodies competing for too few jobs. It all started 2 generations ago, when Reagan was the President.
When those unemployed miners eventually became too desperate to refuse any low pay jobs, the company decided to open a Whiteboard factory there, right outside the sealed coal mine shaft. Those black gold miners now started to work on something white. Whiteboards are made of sheet steel with glass surfaces, with life cycles longer than the school buildings. So most volume business come from newly constructed K-12 schools. In almost all cases, the lowest bidder will win the contract. So the scheme worked well for a while.
Then came the Chinese whiteboard exporters. No West Virginia worker can outcompete a Chinese worker on low wage. After crunching the numbers, we were forced to face the reality. We ended up closing our West Virginia factory and outsourced the manufacturing our branded Whiteboards to a factory outside Beijing China.
Similar episodes have been playing out throughout the US for the past 4 decades. Ask any financial analyst of any US manufacturing companies, big or small, the stories everywhere have been the same. The differences are the destination countries, be it China, Mexico, Vietnam or Bangladesh.
Job-Creating Politicians
If you look at how job-creating or job-exporting decisions are made at ground level, you’ll understand politicians play no role here. If a republican promises you job-creation, he/she is lying to your face, because it goes directly against the interest of the big boss, aka “Capital America”. If a democrat promises you job-creation, he/she is absolutely incapable of the actual delivery, no matter of his/her good intentions. “Capital America” calls the shots here. Asking permission from any politician is simply un-American.
Trump’s Trade War with China
Just like the border wall that only walls-in the “Undocumented Labor America” and walls-out nobody, his “bringing back manufacturing jobs” scheme is just another vaporware. Those at the factory ground never need his permission to either shut down an existing factory or open a new one. He knew better than that when he outsourced US construction jobs to Polish workers while building his own towers in the US.
While he is still in a shouting match with Xi at this moment, as soon as Xi is willing to yield somewhat, which he will eventually, Trump is ready to trade anything, US jobs or not, as he has always been. He is “Capital America” after all.
The Bullet that kills any politician
Had we imposed $100 tariff on each Whiteboard imported from China, our West Virginia factory would have still been running and none of the workers would be on long term welfare. But that will mean each school district around the country will have to pay more for their new schools, hence higher property tax everywhere. Imagine getting that approved by you and your dear neighbors.
Unless tariffs are imposed on all imported goods to level the wage playing ground, no meaningful number of manufacturing jobs will return to the USA. Imposing tariffs across the board will hike prices of everything. “Consumer America” will be the first to feel the pains when price tags double overnight at Walmart nationwide. Any aspiring politician who dares contemplating tariffs will soon be exterminated by “Consumer America'', aka “Voter America”.
Don’t Forget India
Yes some factories are leaving China now, but they are not heading back home but to Vietnam where the cost of labor is even lower. The next destination after that? India. With many living at $1/day, “Labor America” has to wait for another 40 years before wage-equalization between India and the US finally arrives and any meaningful manufacturing jobs begins to return home, if robots have not yet already replaced Indian workers by then.
Human as mere “Resources”
Global free market optimizes the use of global resources, that is if you are “Capital America”. The picture is far different if you are the "resources", i.e. the "Human Resources", aka “Labor America”.
Natural resources such as shale oil can stay underground for another 100 years when the oil price dropped to -$37/barrel on April 20th. Someone wants to make you believe “human resources” can do too. Ever heard somebody advocating for $0.00 “Federal Minimum Wage” lately?
(to be continued)
Frank Hui
2020-10-26
Atlanta, Georgia, USA
p.s. For those who care to read my original articles in Chinese, here is the link: http://forum.atlanta168.com/thread.php?fid=53 |
|
发表于 2020-10-26 13:25:27